The beautiful game is continually changing, and the amount of work behind the scenes that is underway is greater than ever before to ensure that a club remains a step ahead of its opponents. It has become a dog-eat-dog industry with so much cash around in football, especially in the UK, with many clubs turning to ‘marginal profits’ as a way to stay competitive.As such, statistical infrastructure investment has increased exponentially, enabling analysts and stat hounds to dig deeper into the numbers to uncover the strengths and weaknesses of a team and to uncover undervalued talents that can be recognised as new signings. No wonder stat compilers such as Opta and ProZone are continuing to develop.Fortunately, these businesses also give punters a fascinating insight into the game and provide a deeper level of comprehension of over-and under-performing teams / players. Reams and reams of data are now publicly available, and sifting through this for the morsels of gold will greatly increase the profit line of a bettor.
Goal Ratio Shots
You can’t score if you don’t shoot, so the old saying goes. And so it’s true that teams that aim more shots on goal and avoid their competitors from doing the same will definitely pick up more points over the course of a season.In recent years, websites such as WhoScored have arisen that allow members of the public to see how many shots are registered on a goal for / against a team on average, and this can give punters some useful insight.Here’s a table reflecting what we mean, using English Championship data:English-Shots-Championship-ConcededAt the time of writing, the Championship season was just five games old, so of course the data can be highly distorted by one especially good / bad result, but as you can see from the graphic, the SOT Ratio normally represents the status of the league.
The Ratio is determined by dividing the number of shots a team has on goal by the number of shots they concede; the rationale is that high-ratio teams are likely to finish in a better league position than one with a low over the course of a 46-game season.
The pattern is generally playing out at the moment, although it is possible to find a range of outliers. Sheffield Wednesday, as you can see, could have won more points than they have given their fine SOT ratio, so make sure you remember the Owls who will surly ascend the table if they continue in this vein when placing your bets. Wolves and Norwich (sandwiched on the graph between Burton and Ipswich) can be said the same way.There seem to be teams which are also overachieving. The SOT rating of Birmingham City (between Wolves and Ipswich) is only 0.24, so it will be important to see whether they revert to the average and begin to fall down the table. The numbers show that in the coming weeks, Blackburn (0.24) would definitely rise above Preston (0.17), Rotherham (0.13) and Leeds (0.15) in the league table.
For punters, what does it mean? Two stuff, really: first, we can plot probable league finishing positions (although the data set is too limited at the moment). When considering the outright winner / promotion / relegation markets, this is useful. Second, it gives us an insight into what could happen when two teams meet: for example, we would fancy Sheffield Wednesday against Birmingham in our example, unless otherwise implied by their respective league positions.For punters looking to generate long-term profits, finding undervalued and therefore under-priced teams is important.
Types of Target
By researching scored / concessed target forms, a lot of insight can be obtained. As such, it would be churlish to say, but you would think that the teams that score more open play goals might finish higher in the league than a team that relies on set pieces, where the vast majority are ยูฟ่าเบท netted from. Of course, this is an observation, but one based on a basic theory.Conclusions? Findings? We would expect Huddersfield to retain its place close to the top of the league table, and we would also expect Norwich and Aston Villa to step up the rankings soon enough. About why? Since they have the opportunity to score from open play.Look at QPR, who are riding high in the Championship table at present. But how long would that last, given that they relied on the whistle of the referee to help them put the ball in the net? Without an apparent attacking threat from open play, they will definitely slip away from the promotional reckoning over the course of a 46-game season.Nottingham Forest and Barnsley are both of interest to punters, simply because they score a significant percentage of their goals from set pieces. Do they have in their teams a demon free kick taker or two, or is it their players’ aerial presence that is doing all the damage? This data can be a gold mine for the first / anytime target-scorer markets.
A third statistical analysis model for punters is one that defines how lucky / unlucky a team has been to date, giving us an advantage in identifying sides that will progress or regress to their average.It is difficult to measure anticipated objectives since a lot of the necessary data is not readily available online, and it also needs a sound level of mathematical ability to calculate. Fortunately, there are plenty of people on social media out there who publish graphics of planned targets, so make sure you look around for them before making your bets.
The reasoning that lies behind it is clear. Based on its probability, each goal is assigned a number, so research tells us that a penalty taker traditionally has a 78 percent chance of scoring, so a penalty is 0.78. A shot has a 1 percent chance of going in from more than 40 yards, so that becomes 0.01, and so on. Penalties and attempts from inside the 18-yard box’s central zone are given a higher weighting than impressive outside-area efforts.The presumption is that teams with a higher predicted target rating would finish higher in the long term than those with a lower rating. This carries little weight in a single game, as football is so volatile, but the conventional wisdom stands firm over the course of six months or more.